Prices of Asia's staple, rice (ZR.COMD), soared by the most since 2008. HSBC Holdings PLC said in its recent flashnote, that rising food prices could cause more trouble for central banks trying to curb inflation. Global rice imports as a share of consumption have roughly doubled over the past 25 years and have risen by about 4% since grain prices rose in 2008.

Adverse weather conditions around the world could cause supply shocks, pushing up prices for rice, grains and other agricultural commodities, providing positive price support for ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Agri ETN (RJA), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) and other iPath DJs - UBS Agriculture TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJA).

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Thailand has suffered its worst flooding in more than 50 years, destroying nearly 13% of the country's rice crop, while India banned all rice exports except for its export specialty, basmati. This is critical for global supply, as Thailand accounts for more than 30% of global rice exports.

“Memories of the Asian price crisis of 2008 are deeply embedded in the memory,” commodity analysts led by Frederick Neumann wrote in the above quoted research note. “Back then, rising rice prices in some countries quickly spilled over to other markets as consumers and governments across the region scrambled to stockpile food. Prices of other staple foods such as wheat also rose because buyers switched to alternatives.”

Export prices for rice from Thailand, which is considered the global benchmark, jumped to more than $600 a ton, up nearly 50% from last year. It’s a well known pattern suggesting, that rice prices can remain high for a considerable period of time due to slow stockpile circulation, unlike in the case of seasonally sensitive fruits and vegetables.

In terms of the expected unmet consumption, Malaysia and the Philippines are more dependent on rice imports than other countries in the Asian region, followed by Korea and Taiwan. Other countries such as Indonesia are also at risk. Hong Kong and Singapore import all their rice, although given their purchasing power, they could easily secure supplies.