Fundamentals, Weaker Dollar Support Copper Price Recovery Trend

Sep 14, 2023
585

The copper price rises on Thursday, September 14, as USD further weakened after the release of U.S. inflation statistics. As of 8.00 CET, December copper futures on the Comex exchange were up 0.61% to $3.8063 per pound (about 0.45 kilograms).

At the London Metal Exchange (LME) at the end of trading yesterday, the price of a ton of 3-MO copper futures rose by 0.31% to $ 8,417, aluminum – by 0.96% to $ 2,217.5, zinc – by 1.9% to $ 2,526. After falling to $3.5860 per pound on May 24, front month December COMEX copper futures sharply recovered, establishing higher lows and renewing its highs until the price briefly touched the $4 per pound level on July 31 and August 1.

Annual inflation in the U.S. accelerated to 3.7% in August from 3.2% a month earlier. The forecast was 3.6%. At the same time, core inflation in the U.S. – excluding food and energy prices – in annualized terms was expected to slow to 4.3% from 4.7% in July. After the release of statistics, the U.S. currency lost its ground.

The fundamentals of copper supply and demand support the steady rise in prices, and the red metal bull market has the possibility of further stregthening. The following fundamental factors are conducive to rising copper prices:

Copper production cannot keep up with growing demand. It takes about 10 years for new mining projects to emerge and become fully functional. Copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange have been on a modest, but steady downward trend in recent years. On top of that, since mid-2019, copper production dropped from nearly 340,000 tons to less than 120,000 tons.

Meanwhile, green energy plans require copper. Goldman Sachs analysts have dubbed copper the "new oil" because of its role in electric vehicles, wind turbines and other climate change initiatives. While fundamentals remain positive, long-term trends support higher copper prices.