Oil Markets Seem to Be Disappointed by OPEC’s Lower-than-Expected 1 Million Barrels per Day Cut

Dec 01, 2023
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OPEC+ agreed to deepen its production cuts following an unexpectedly lukewarm performance of crude prices and predictions of a renewed surplus next year, all other factors contributing equally.

Since July, Saudi Arabia has been making an extra voluntary cut of 1 million barrels a day, vividly described by Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman as a “lollipop.” The country was pressing other OPEC members and its allies to join this effort after crude prices fell by more than 10% from their September high. A deeper collective reduction could offset a renewed oil surplus predicted for early next year, but hardly more than that.

However, the amount of the cut was a bit disappointing. Members of the group agreed to make only 1 million barrels a day of additional oil-supply cuts at a meeting on Thursday, November 30, as some African countries weren’t as flexible as top OPEC+ members. That reduction comes alongside the much-anticipated extension into next year of Saudi Arabia’s voluntary output curb of the same amount.

As a result, front month Brent crude oil futures only barely crossed $80/bbl mark, having added 0.27% overnight. The U.S. WTI futures advanced by 0.49% to $75.89/bbl as of writing. Oil also remained strangely ignorant to earlier today’s China’s positive macrostats. According to the latest report by S&P Global, the Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached a three-month high of 50.7 compared to 49.5 in October, surpassing expectations.

In a surprise move, Brazil produced nothing less than a sensation announcing its willingness to join the cartel. Brazilian Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira specified that the move is expected next year. The charter, open to all oil producing countries, doesn’t bind signatories or limit their sovereign rights. According to OEC data, in September, Brazil exported $3.92 billion in crude oil, while importing $681 million. This level of exports is a 13% increase YoY, with China as the primary destination.