Commodities portfolio managers remain generally pessimistic about crude oil prices ahead of the now-postponed OPEC+ meeting. According to Oilprice.com, bullish bets fell sharply in the week ended Nov. 21 — net long positions dropped by more than 19,000 to their lowest level since June.

Meanwhile the OPEC+ meeting will begin virtually today, on November 30, with members deciding future oil production levels amid a volatile geopolitical scene. Crude prices fell in the first 6 months of the year as tight monetary policy, a disappointing economic recovery in China, additional SPR releases and brief banking crises in the United States and Europe raised questions about global supply/demand balance for the commodity.

However, in addition to the shocks arising from the conflict in Ukraine, global markets have experienced additional supply-side shocks. The International Energy Agency, EIA, had previously warned that further production cuts would only push up oil prices amid "strong inflationary pressures" and expects OPEC+ oil production to fall by 300,000 barrels per day next year.

Remarkably, commodity prices have come under additional pressure after fighting broke out on Oct. 7 between Israel and Hamas, amid concerns the conflict could spread across the region, which accounts for a third of global seaborne oil trade. Market participants are closely watching how Middle Eastern countries react to the bitter conflict, which could determine the outcome of the oil cartel's 2024 group meeting on production quotas.