China scares the markets. Again
U.S. equity-index futures slipped, stocks were mixed and commodities from oil to iron ore tumbled as disappointing data from China further clouded the outlook for the global economy.
Contracts on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were lower, suggesting a four-week stocks rally may stall. Europe’s equity benchmark advanced about 0.3%, as corporate news buoyed healthcare stocks while miners and carmakers declined. An Asian share index added less than 0.1% and emerging-market stocks dropped.
Treasury yields were little changed and the bond curve remained deeply inverted, pointing to worries that the Federal Reserve’s campaign of monetary tightening against high inflation will spark a US recession. Bonds in Europe gained. Bloomberg’s dollar spot index jumped the most in more than a week.
Data showed China’s July retail sales, investment and industrial output missed economists’ estimates. The central bank had earlier cut borrowing costs. China’s bond yields and the offshore yuan fell, while its bourses wavered.
Equity markets in recent weeks have drawn succor from signs of slowing price pressures, which stirred hopes of a shift by the Fed to less aggressive rate hikes. But China’s faltering economy shows many hurdles still lie ahead for a near-13% rebound in global stocks from June bear-market lows. The risk of a euro-area recession has reached the highest level since November 2020, according to economists polled by Bloomberg.
Markets are “focusing on the fact the US seems to have finally started a period of disinflation,” Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA, said on Bloomberg Television. She added that “if China is slowing and isn’t going to pick up very much then investors really need the US to hold up.”
Oil shed more than 3%, while iron ore, copper and other metals declined amid mounting concerns that China’s sluggish recovery will curb demand for raw materials. Gold retreated below $1,800 an ounce and Bitcoin slid toward $24,000.
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