There’s a glimpse of hope for slowing inflation, despite energy prices – the main source fueling current consumer price growth – don’t show any desire to stop for a little breather. According to the recent data, In September 2022, the FAO Food Price Index (FPI) was down 1.5 points (1.1%) from August averaging 136.3 points, thus, its decline technically endured for the sixth month in a row. This decline in the food prices in September was driven by a sharp fall in world vegetable oil prices and a moderate decline in prices of sugar, meat and dairy products, which were larger than the still-notable increase in the cereal price index. Despite a further fall, the producer food price inflation on average was 7.2 points (5.5%) higher than the same period last year.

In September, the FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 147.8 points, up 2.2 points (1.5%) from August and 14.9 points (11.2%) from September 2021. In September, world wheat prices rose by 2.2% due to growing uncertainty about the continuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative after November and the possible consequences of this for Ukraine's exports. In addition, concerns about rainfall shortages in Argentina and the U.S., as well as poor export performance by the European Union, combined with increased purchases of wheat in world markets by this association due to maize supply constraints, were additional factors for the increase in wheat prices. In September, a slight increase in world prices for fodder grains continued (+0.4%), and zigzagging trends were noted for different types of grains. Thus, global corn prices were flat (+0.2%) as a stronger U.S. dollar helped offset the impact of an expected supply shortfall and a further deterioration in crop prospects in the U.S. and the European Union amid Ukraine's export uncertainty. International barley prices declined 3%, reflecting mainly better crop prospects in Australia and the Russian Federation; at the same time, world sorghum prices rose by 13.2% due to an expected decline in production in the U.S. In September, the overall FAO price index for rice rose by 2.2%. Indian rice prices rose the most due to a change in India's export policy, leading to speculation that buyers would turn to other rice suppliers. Also pushing prices up were disruptions in the marketing mechanisms and uncertainty about production prospects due to severe flooding in Pakistan. However, sluggish, in general, the demand helped to limit the rise in prices.

The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 142.5 points in September, down 0.8 points (0.6%) from August; as a result, its decline continues for the 3rd month in a row, but still its value turned out to be 24.4 points (20.7%) higher than in the corresponding period of last year. In September, world prices for all types of dairy products declined moderately, which largely reflected the currency impact on world prices for these products (which are apparently denominated in U.S. dollars) from the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. In addition, limited market demand for medium-term supplies contributed to the decline in global dairy prices due to concerns about market uncertainty due to limited milk production, high energy costs and labor shortages, especially in Europe, combined with a bleak economic outlook. At the same time, the demand for contracted products for immediate delivery is still stable, especially from Asian countries.