Rough Rice Sep '23 (ZRU23) added yesterday, on May 29, +1.22% to $14.900 per 2,000 cwt, apparently welcoming a recent USDA report and forecast.

These are the first WASDE-reported 2023/24 projections for both the U.S. and global rice markets. Global ending rice stocks for 2023/24 are projected to decline by 2.5 million tons to 166.7 million tons, as domestic and residual consumption are expected to once again exceed global production. It was the third straight annual decline in global rice stocks and the lowest level since 2017/18.

For the United States, production in 2023/24 is projected at 192.7 million cwt, up 20% from a year earlier, mostly due to expanded plantings. U.S. imports are projected at a near-record 39.0 million cwt, with Asian aromatic names again expected to account for the bulk of demand. With carrying down 31% from a year earlier, total supplies in 2023/24 are projected to increase 8% to 259.3 million cwt. On the 2023/24 use side, total U.S. exports are projected to increase 21% to 74 million, with growth expected for both long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain and for both Rough Rice and Milled Rice. Total U.S. domestic use and residual inventories in 2023/24 is projected at a record 154 million cwt, with total use projected at 228 million cwt, up almost 8% from a year earlier. With total supplies exceeding total use, ending stocks are projected to increase more than 13% to 31.3 million cwt.

In the global rice market, rice production in 2023/24 is expected to reach a record 520.5 million tons, up more than 2% YoY, with Bangladesh, the European Union, China, Pakistan and the United States producing the largest crops taking into account the expected growth. Global domestic and residual consumption in 2023/24 is projected at a record 523 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last year, with most of the increase coming from South Asia.