Turkish Lira Plunged Again on Erkan’s Resignation and Poor Inflation Data

Feb 06, 2024
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The Turkish lira is under pressure again, because of a combination of factors, including just another jaw-dropping resignation of a just recently appointed governor, and a slew of very disappointing economic data.

First of all, according to MarketWatch, Hafize Erkan, a former Wall Street executive and Turkey's first female central bank governor, said in a social-media post that she was “requested from the president to be pardoned from her duties, which she had carried out with honor from the first day.” So, Erkan stepped down following the equally uninspiring resignation of her much-criticized predecessor Şahap Kavcıoğlu. Turkey's newly appointed central bank governor, Fatih Karahan, has his work cut out for him, after being named to the job by presidential decree over the weekend following the newsmaking resignation.

Meanwhile, inflation in Turkey for January was even slightly higher than expected — prices soared by 6.7% MoM and a whopping 64.9% YoY. The strong price growth in January was expected by the markets due to, among other things, the indexation of the minimum wage by 49% in January.

Producer prices in Turkey added 4.1% MoM and 44.2% YoY in January, but here the big negative contribution was from energy prices due to the high base of last year, all other categories are up 40-80% YoY.

In terms of consumer prices, prices for services, primarily medicine (17.7% MoM and 78.6% YoY), hotels and restaurants (12.2% MoM and 92.3% YoY), annual performance has been particularly aggressive in education, transportation and food staples.

Objectively, the Central Bank doesn't have much chance yet to bring inflation back to normal with such indexations.