Turkish Lira: Broken, but Not Defeated

Apr 18, 2023
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According to Bloomberg, Turkey’s central bank has requested local lenders to limit the amount of dollar purchases they make in the interbank market to ease pressure on the lira, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.

Meanwhile, according to the JP Morgan Chase (JPM), the Turkish lira is likely to drop further, to nearly 30/USD after the election next month. The investment bank has warned that it expects only a moderate change of Erdoğan’s non-orthodox economic and monetary policy.

JPMorgan's analysts said that macro adjustments were expected regardless of the results, but elaborated two prevalent scenarios based on the degree of commitment to more orthodox policies, such as interest rate rises to efforts to cool inflation.

On May 14, Turkey's strict and controversial presidential and parliamentary elections may become the most consequential in the history of the Republic for hundreds of years.

They marked nearly equal opportunities for the two Turks, whose verbal battle against each other will certainly be around the defeat of stubborn inflation, hijacking living costs and luring international speculators.