Tesla Misses Delivery Consensus Forecasts

Oct 03, 2023
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Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA) reported worse than expected 3Q deliveries: 435,059 electric autos were recorded vs. expectations of 456,722. Production = 430,488 autos vs. 461,992 expected.

Ahead of the release, analysts estimated deliveries at about 461,000 units, according to FactSet. However, other Wall Street estimates agree closer to 455,000. The company delivered 15,985 Model S/X vehicles and 419,074 Model 3/Y vehicles in Q3 2023. Still, no matter what, Tesla reiterated its 2023 sales target of about 1.8 million vehicles. Production fell as Tesla temporarily closed factories and generally slowed production, which comes in stark contrast with the company’s historic stance of “do-whatever-you-can-to-meet-the-plan”.

Before Monday, Tesla bulls were already looking past Q3 deliveries, betting on a strong Q4 recovery and the expected Cybertruck launch. However, last week Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner outlined a more pessimistic view, dropping the legendary company's price target to 285 from 300 on the back of Tesla’s deliveries of 440,000.

In reality, Tesla deliveries fell 6% compared to Q2, with the EV-maker reporting that the decline was due to “planned factory upgrade shutdowns as discussed in the last call.”

Even though Tesla shares rose 1.6% to 250.22 on Friday, the EV company’s shares fell 0.54% in premarket trading Tuesday, October 3, indicating the cooling investors’ sentiment.