Soybean futures in Chicago’s CBOT rose to their highest levels in almost 3 months period on Thursday, December 8, backed by strong export demand, while wheat is still trading nearly flat after its recent rebound from a one-year low on new details about the so-called Black Sea Shipment Accord.

U.S. exporters reported sales of 118K metric tons of soybeans to China, the third flash sale of soybeans to China this week, prompting hopes that the country's easing Covid-19 restrictions will boost demand for U.S. commodities.

According to Tradingview, CBOT soybeans (S_1:COM) for January delivery settled +1% to $14.85 per bushel, after rising to $14.92 reaching its highest mark since mid-September. Sales to China quickly recovered after the country’s recent efforts to liberate its strict zero-Covid policies. As a result, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported surging weekly export sales, which totaled 1.72 million metric tons for the 2022-23 marketing year in the week ended December 1, including purchases of 839K tons by China. Preliminary open interest data shows net new buying of soybeans was up by almost 10,400 contracts – mostly executable in March.

The published figure easily exceeded mid-market expectations, which anticipated sales of 600K-1.1 million tons, as well as the prior's week sales 693K tons across the 2022-23 and 2023-24 marketing years. At the same time, overall grain price movements remain limited as traders await the USDA’s release of monthly world crop forecasts soon.

According to Barchart.com, traders in general expect the weekly Export Sales report showing a range of 0.6 to 1.2 million metric tons (MT) of old crop sales for the week that ended December 1. New crop estimates are expected to be less than 250K MT, so there is strong momentum for further price increase for the agricultural commodity. For the products, traders expect 150K to 350K MT of soymeal sales and less than 10K MT of bookings.

The preliminary report estimates for the December WASDE (https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde) have soybean procurement at 233.3 mbu (million bushels) on average, representing a 13.3 mbu increase from the November estimate. Published ideas run from 200 mbu to 296 mbu. The average of estimates for the Brazilian soy crop is to see 152.5 MMT, which would be 500K MT above USDA’s November forecast if realized. The full range is from unchanged to 155.1 MMT. Argentina is estimated to unveil a reduced 700K MT to 48.8 MMT – also a substantial support for the commodity price hike. In a Bloomberg survey, the expected world ending stocks average at 102.3 MMT, up just 100,000 from last month.