Russian Ruble Forecasted to Stay Strong, Supported by Exporters’ Revenue Repatriation and Stabilization of Crude Prices
The Russian ruble further strengthened against both USD and EUR on Monday, November 13, with USDRUB pair dropping to as low as 92.132. Russian exporters will increase foreign currency sales pursuant to the new regulation introduced in October, and USDRUB can even briefly plunge below 92 rubles/$1. The newly imposed mandatory sale of foreign currency proceeds by Russian exporters amplified by energy prices stabilization continues to support the Russian ruble. The availability of markets for Russian oil is confirmed by the news about record supplies of Russian oil to Brazil. At the same time, the prospects of further interest rate increases bolstered by the fact of still-persisting inflationary risks became even more definite. The rhetoric of the U.S. Fed's FOMC in the near future largely depends on the upcoming data on the consumer confidence index, as well as on the dynamics of the U.S. inflation rate.
Meanwhile, supply and demand in the oil market remains in everyone’s focus. On Friday, a barrel of Brent rose by $1.42 to $80.69. Monday's focus will be on OPEC's monthly oil market report. Currently, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure and move in the range of $81–82 per barrel.
The yields of Russian MinFin’s OFZ with a fixed coupon changed on Friday within 10 b. p. range in both directions, while Russian statistical agency Rosstat published data on weekly inflation: for the period from October 31 to November 7, it spearheaded to 0.42% against 0.14% a week earlier. In these conditions, most likely, the OFZ yields with fixed coupon will keep going higher.
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