Philly Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (I:PFMAI) is based on the monthly Business Outlook Survey of manufacturers in the so-called Third Federal Reserve District, home to over 13.3 million Americans in Delaware, Southern New Jersey and Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The survey has been conducted each month since 1968. The index in the U.S. ticked up 1 point to -23.2 in March.

Philly Fed March non-manufacturing index came in at -12.8% yesterday, on March 21, vs +3.2 prior, exacerbating the negative effect created by a complementary manufacturing survey in the same district one week ago.

Last week, in a tweet, popular economist David Rosenberg, the president and chief economist of Rosenberg Research, warned that the country’s economy might be heading towards a crash landing rather than a soft landing that the mainstream business media is discussing now.

Previously, on March 16, the regional central bank said its manufacturing business outlook rose less than expected to -23.2 in March, up from February's reading of -24.3. The data significantly missed expectations as consensus looked for some improvement to -14.7.

“Responses to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued declines for the region's manufacturing sector. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all negative, and the firms reported a decline in employment, on balance,” the report said. The data showed that activity in the Philadelphia region remained at its lowest level since early 2020, when the global economy ground to a halt due to the Covid-19 pandemic.