Livestock: CME Live Cattle to Continue Ascent due to Tight Supplies and Lower Weights

Jan 17, 2023
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According to UBS CEO Ralph Hamers speaking to journalists in Davos during the current Economic forum, the era of higher inflation "is here to stay”. Concerted ascension of many agricultural commodities suggests that in the epicenter of this painful process is exactly food and essentials. We have been producing substantial analytics concerning wheat, soybeans and other grains, but what about other agricultural products?

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, USDA, said the pork cutout jumped to $81.64/cwt last Friday, on January 13, up $2.31 from the prior day. Pork packer margins remained at an estimated $2 per head as of last measure, down from $7.50 a week ago.

Average cattle weights have declined, according to USDA data, following recent stressful conditions at feedlots due to harsh winter weather. The lighter cattle weights would reduce total beef production and underpin prices, traders said. Cash cattle prices at Plains feedlot markets are expected to be steady to higher when trading develops later this week.

On top of that, according to USDA, beef slaughter has been lagging behind, with average 346,000 head processed on a weekly basis, 17,000–20,000 behind the same period a year ago. Boxed beef prices, however, firmed somewhat, with select cuts adding $2.39 to $236.29 per hundredweight, while choice cuts eased 19 cents to 264.86 per hundredweight, as of the end of last week.

As a result, February live cattle have been on a cautious advance mode finishing at 157.725 cents/lb. while April futures were down 0.025 cent at 160.9 U.S. cents.

CME lean hog futures ended mixed on Friday, as pressure from weak cash hog prices and, conversely, improving supplies was offset by a sharply higher wholesale pork carcass cutout value. CME February lean hogs ended 0.1 cent lower at 78.65 cents/lb. while April futures were up 0.1 cent at 87.275 cents/lb (cents per pound). Deferred contracts were 0.275 cent lower to 0.65 higher. All in all, the situation remains largely under control, but the accumulating deficiencies push prices higher, and there is no end in sight.