According to London-based Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), official gas prices in Europe exceeded $400 per 1 thousand cubic meters driven by concerns about dwindling LNG flows, which outweighed the fact that gas storage is at record levels.

Despite overall flat USD (DXY Dollar Index has been wavering between 100 and 102.50 for about three months), September gas futures on the TTF index in the Netherlands rose during just one day from $357.5 per 1 thousand cubic meters (+1,2%) to $404.3 per 1 thousand cubic meters as of noon CET demonstrating total price growth of 15.2% of September futures on the TTF hub.

Starting from January 2023, gas prices in Europe began to decline. The decline occurred against the background of abnormally warm winter in European countries and high levels of gas storages. However June saw a new price cycle as exchange gas prices for in Europe rose to about $500. At present, storage capacities are reported to be more than 87% full, so this price rally needs a more sophisticated explanation.

In its latest quarterly gas market report published late July 17 alongside its annual gas security review, the IEA said European gas demand is still forecast to fall by 7% YoY in 2023 to 489 Bcm (billion cubic meters).