Exchange-traded gas prices accelerated their growth to 11% for November futures on the Dutch TTF on the London exchange ICE yesterday, on October 12, reaching as high as $562.2 per thousand cubic meters intraday (+11.4%). As of noon CET, the price was $559.5 per 1,000 cu.m. (+10.8%).

On October 9, due to tensions in the Middle East region and the decision of Chevron's LNG plant workers in Australia to resume their strike, November TTF futures rose by 12.4% to $430 per 1 thousand cubic meters. On October 10, the spot gas price at TTF at the close of trading was $494 per 1,000 cu m, and on October 11 – $491 per 1,000 cu m.

Earlier, Israel decided to temporarily stop gas production at one of its largest fields – Tamar, located on the shale cay near the Gaza Strip and within the reach of Hamas rockets. The shutdown of Tamar, which gas has been also exported to Egypt, may mean reduced utilization of Egyptian LNG plants, thus reducing LNG supplies to Europe in winter.

Where is gas supplied to the EU from?

According to the latest Eurostat data, in Q1 2022, Russia was the largest pipeline gas supplier to the EU with a 38.8% share, ahead of Norway (38.1%). But by Q1 2023, Russia's share dropped to 17%, and Norway's share grew to 46%.

As for LNG (imported by sea), Russia (18.1%) was the second largest supplier to the EU in Q1 2022 after the U.S. (48.6%). A year later, Russia's share fell to 13% and the U.S. share rose to 40%.