After a short pause, Diesel futures trading in New York surged almost back to the highest level in records going back to 1986 as global demand for the fuel remains robust in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Nymex ultra-low sulfur diesel futures settled at $4.8450 a gallon on Tuesday, almost reclaiming the prior record on May 16 at $5.1020, when the U.S. and EU started to formally discuss the energy price caps. Since then, diesel has become the world’s most in-demand fuel as buyers in Latin America, Europe and within the U.S. compete for supplies as fast as refiners on the U.S. Gulf Coast can make them.

While the EU can last till the end of February if its natural gas storage is 100% full (and this winter is not colder than normal), the U.S. currently only has a 25-day supply of diesel, and U.S. demand for diesel is increasing, while domestic oil production is not increasing.

Many U.S. oil analysts claim that although the crude oil prices stabilized after the recent OPEC+ meeting, President Joe Biden’s continued draining of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The issue has been dominating the headlines over the past few weeks, but analysts say a more impactful and serious crisis on the energy front looms, namely, a diesel fuel shortage.

Diesel doesn’t get as much of the news coverage as oil and gas in general, but it should because diesel fuel is the “industrial lifeblood of the world economy”, and the price of diesel alone probably has a more significant impact on inflation and the prices consumers pay at grocery stores over any other factor.

● As Bloomberg noted earlier this week, “The U.S. has just 25 days of diesel supply, the lowest since 2008, according to the Energy Information Administration. At the same time, the four-week rolling average of distillates supplied, a proxy for demand, rose to its highest seasonal level since 2007.”

● Without ample amounts of diesel, trucks and semi-trucks don’t move, farms are shut down, and critical manufacturing sectors are crippled.

The Biden administration has remained strangely silent, probably hoping that the dismal news doesn’t hit the mainstream because of hard-to-predict consequences that are ready to weight on the approaching outcome of the midterm elections in the U.S.

The diesel crunch has the potential to drive up prices for consumers who already view inflation and the economy as a top voting issue. Retail prices have been steadily climbing for more than two weeks. At $5.324 a gallon, they’re 50% higher than this time last year, according to the U.S. Automotive Industry Agency, AAA, data.