U.S. WTI crude oil is shedding another 0.7% today to settle at $75.11/bbl, while Brent crude oil is slipping towards $78.50/bbl mark, despite recent OPEC+ efforts to further curb oil production. One could question the ability of the oil cartel to influence oil markets as a whole, but the real story behind the oil's unstoppable slide lies in different matters, those that cannot be controlled by OPEC.

Last week, the U.S. macro releases were a mixed bag at best, being finally overshadowed by First Republic Bank’s collapse, as U.S. GDP data and a slowdown in U.S. capital goods spending pointed to slowing down growth, while concerns about inflation and recession resurfaced. This came to the fore again with Friday's slightly higher MoM and YoY PCE data, pointing to further rate hikes or at least the need to maintain tighter rates for an extended period, which in turn could weigh on demand.

Meanwhile, U.S. stockpiles data from the EIA fell more than expected last week as demand for motor fuel surged as summer loomed. Meanwhile, U.S. production fell by about 12.5 million bpd in February, the lowest level since December 2022. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes' report was unchanged at 591 rigs for the week ended April 28, but fell by 1 in April, their fifth month of decline in the data.

Notwithstanding, the World Bank has published its latest commodity market outlook report to 2023 and beyond. The report suggests that commodity prices are bracing for their biggest losses since the Covid-19 pandemic. Energy prices are expected to fall 26% this year, with Brent crude oil expected to average $84 a barrel in dollar terms this year, down 16% from an average in 2022. Despite the sharp decline expected this year, prices across all major commodity groups will remain well above their 2015-2019 average, with European gas prices set to be almost three times their average for the 2015-19 period.