Cocoa Futures Outperformed Most Commodities in 2023, but Reasons Here aren’t Only Fundamental

Dec 21, 2023
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Cocoa prices rose again on Wednesday, December 20, this time — only modestly — with March New York cocoa yet once again renewing its 2023’ highs. Ongoing concerns about cocoa supplies have been continuously supporting cocoa prices. Data released by the Ivorian (Côte d'Ivoire is the world's largest cocoa producer) government showed that Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) farmers shipped 671,544 tons of cocoa from October 1 to December 17, representing a decrease of -33% compared with the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the world’s increasing demand for chocolate has reached its conservationists point. The global cocoa and chocolate market is expected to grow from $48 billion in 2022 to nearly $68 billion by 2029, according to Fortune Business Insights.

Nigeria is Africa's largest oil supplier and one of the largest economies, but cocoa is one of the country's most important exports after oil. This African country is the world's fourth-largest cocoa producer, accounting for more than 5% of global supply, according to the International Cocoa Organization. Still, it lags far behind the world's largest producers, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for more than half of global demand and are often highlighted in companies' sustainability plans.

According to trade data from the World Bank and the Nigeria Export Council, more than 60% of Nigeria's cocoa is sold to Europe, and about 8% is sold to the United States and Canada. Ferrero, which makes Ferrero Rocher and Nutella chocolate-hazelnut spreads, as well as Butterfinger and Crunch chocolate bars, said on its website that it relies on a farming group in a community near the forest for its Olam offering source of cocoa. McLean, Mars Inc. is one of the world's largest end-users of cocoa, using Nigerian cocoa from Olam and Tulip.