China’s Inflation Warning Raises Bar for Further PBOC Easing

Aug 09, 2022
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The central bank will both support economic growth and ensure stable prices, the PBOC said in its quarterly monetary policy report released Wednesday. At the same time, it will provide stronger and higher-quality support to the real economy, it said.

“Structural inflation pressure may increase in the short term, and the pressure of imported inflation remains,” the PBOC said. “We can’t lower our guards easily.”

The PBOC’s warnings came on the same day official data showed inflation accelerated in July to 2.7%, the highest level in two years, largely driven by food prices as pork costs surged. Weak consumer demand kept overall price pressures in check, though.

The central bank said consumer inflation will likely exceed 3% in some months during the second half of the year. However, China will likely achieve the target of keeping full-year inflation around 3% in 2022, thanks to measures taken to ensure grain and energy supply as well as a prudent monetary policy, it said.

Economists said while the PBOC’s warnings didn’t signal a tightening in monetary policy, there’s little scope for significant easing in coming months. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the report’s focus on near-term inflationary pressures and how it’s implementing policy indicates the PBOC is likely to continue with its stance toward low-profile, accommodative monetary policy.