After a Profound Rally Gold Looks Poised to Stabilize Around $2080–2100/oz Levels

Dec 28, 2023
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Gold prices crossed the critical $2,000 per ounce mark back in November, and ever since keep outperforming many other types of assets. The bullion then hit an all-time intraday high of $2,135 an ounce on December 4. It then faced a moderate correction to current levels, around $2,030 an ounce, in the first few days of December.

Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates supported gold prices. The market believes that the possibility of an interest rate cut in March 2024 is more than 50%. Gold may also benefit from safe-haven buying as global geopolitical risks remain high.

After gold's marked underperformance in October, gold miner stocks performed largely in line with expectations. As gold itself rose about 2.7% in November, gold miner stocks rose 11% to 15% on average for the month, narrowing the valuation gap between gold stocks and gold.

USD’s currently weakened following a series of negative U.S. macro stats in the week before Christmas. This has led market participants to remain cautious about U.S. interest rates in 2024, thus weighing on the dollar and letting many commodities, let alone safe havens, return to growth phases.

Looking ahead, there is a distinct lack of more consistent forward-looking Fed rate analyses which, together with the potential for choppy global stock trading, after the Christmas rally apparently failed to materialize, may point to the modest volumes expected going forward, hinting at a stabilization around $2080–2100/oz levels. In a surprise move after the Christmas holidays, U.S. stocks resumed growth, but gold remains rather muted for now.